Inside The Poker Mind
Hand 1 – Two Pair on a Soaking Wet Board
I look down at A♦J♦ on the BU and, with the BB being $1.00, I open-raise to $2.25. This is my standard size on tougher, reg-infested tables like this one. The BB, who is a fairly active regular 3-Bets me to $10 and I make the call. This part of my range is far too strong to fold unless I want to open myself up to being completely run over by 3-Betting.
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The flop ($20.50) is A♠K♦J♠ and Villain checks. This is a flop on which my opponent is incentivized to check quite often. Both players can hold a lot of two pair and straights here and so betting with impunity is not a great option. I expect his checking range to be somewhat capped, meaning that he cannot hold the absolute nuts too often now, but I do expect to see some hands like AA and AK that block many of my calling hands to a flop bet. I decide to value bet with large sizing here and make it $13.64 (I have some hotkeys set up hence the obscure sizing!). Villain calls.
The turn ($47.78) brings the 6♥ and Villain checks. Even if I end up rejecting the idea of betting three times for value, now seems to be the best time to make a second value bet than on the river, so I quickly reject checking behind. There are potential river cards that might spoil the day here and make it harder to extract value. I bet $22.70 and Villain calls.
The river ($93.18) is the 8♠ and I have $54.16 left. Do I go for a third value bet when Villain checks? The upside to betting is that I might sometimes get called by KJ or a hand like A8s or A6s. The downside is that if the Villain has a flush, AK or AA/KK, then I am costing myself a lot of money. I elect to check here. It is difficult for me to have a bluff here without being creative earlier on in the hand now. The population does not tend to bluff enough here and so I am expecting too much fold equity from the worst hands in Villain’s range.
We check and Villain shows A♥2♥, he had check/called the flop with top pair and the turn with top pair and a heart draw. It is very likely that he was folding the river in this spot.
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